Winning the peace is the key

For months, people have been discussing a war with Iraq. The fact that there is a war is a failure of diplomacy and the institutions created to keep the peace. Alas, history has taught us that sometimes it comes down to direct action when you are not dealing with sane or rational people.

In Australia and New Zealand, we are not accustomed to dealing with evil and corrupt people. It's beyond our moral compass.

But the question has always been, OK, once the war is won, then what?

Good question. Peacemaking - creating a grim peace by force - has worked in the past. Peacekeeping - that is, keeping hostile groups and tribes apart - has a more rocky record. Nation building - putting the pieces together to create a functioning political unit - is very costly and difficult.

One of the most successful examples of peacekeeping and nation building was the Marshall plan, instituted in 1947 to rebuild Europe. The Marshall plan did not work because of the money involved (in terms of government expenditure it was very little). It worked because it created certainty.

It set an ambitious and principled precedent. The Europeans wanted democracy and open markets and societies. Old institutions, political parties, trade unions, chambers of commerce, civil society were there, eager to start again.

Never in the history of mankind has anyone washed a rental car. Ownership is the key to success. That's why smart people in Washington, Europe and at the United Nations are planning for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq that helps recreate what was one of the most successful societies in the Middle East.

The strategy is to have the armed forces seen as liberators, not occupiers. Failure here will have a dangerous, destabilising effect.

The war is not about oil. If it was, the UN could have lifted the embargo. But to many in the region, that's how it has been sold.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has suggested an initial trust fund be established to distribute resources. Winning the war may be the easy part; winning and securing the peace is the more expensive and difficult part. There are no Thomas Jeffersons or Benjamin Franklins waiting to take over.

What is needed is a good central bank, secular educationalists, honest courts, people with the skills to handle post-war demands for compensation and justice. Accountable representative leaders and an even-handed civil service will be central to long-term success.

Handling public relations within the Arab world and maintaining a coalition of the willing to mobilise global public opinion - not now to march for peace but to pay for and maintain that peace, working with UN agencies and NGOs - will be a difficult political challenge.

Iraq's various faiths, factions and tribes need to be given an early road map so that they can again own their nation. This is possible and vital to long-term success. Iraq is not Afghanistan, but it's not East Timor or Kosovo either.

It's a sign of mature hope that the post-war strategy is receiving as much attention as the planning for a war. Another sign of hope was a story in The Independent newspaper on March 12 which reported, "Facing an impending war and an infrastructure fractured by years of sanctions, the financial heart of Iraq's capital should have long stopped. But the stock index had risen by 58 per cent to 2,117 in the past six months. And it's not just shares and stocks that are rocketing. Baghdad, Bastra and Mosqul have become some of the prime spots in the region for real estate. The price of land has risen by 20 per cent in the past four months."

The market is speaking. Investors are already factoring in regime change and a lifting of sanctions. There is a possibility of great and good things. Just imagine how much easier it would have been if Hussein had accepted UN resolutions, or if the resolutions had not been necessary.

I've visited Iraq, and most developing countries and economies in transition. There is just no reason for people to be poor. It is the corrupt, homicidal leaders, bureaucrats, tribal leaders and phony capitalists who inflict war and poverty on people.