US Democratic primaries

The United States is a hyperpower unmatched in world history. Everything she does impacts on everyone. The US gets a cold, the rest of the world gets pneumonia. US growth pulls and lifts the global economy; her excellence in research and development into new drugs gives hope to sick people everywhere. Her military spending matches the next 15 to 20 military spenders put together. When US President Bush gave his State of the Union address recently, global TV reporters asked people in Iraq, France, China and Mexico for comments.

When people are asked what they think of the President, people immediately assume it means the President of the US. I suppose that’s fair enough – when my country, New Zealand makes a mistake we are a danger only to ourselves. When the US makes a mistake, everyone is affected. I once challenged a group of US politicians to name a New Zealand Prime Minister. They admitted they couldn’t, which caused some embarrassment when I explained that they were looking at one. I reassured them that there was nothing to be too embarrassedabout , given most New Zealanders couldn’t remember either.

Like any other product, craze or fashion, US political ideas and opinions impact on other countries. The latest technology, ideas and systems are always tried out in the most sophisticated markets first. Another reason why Prime Minister John Howard will call an election before the US Presidential election in November this year. A Bush loss would have a ripple effect against conservatives everywhere. This is not new. The presidencies of John F Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson help progressive parties implement their social and economic programs in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. In the same way, a generation later, the Reagan presidency raised a basic question of the role of government elsewhere in the world.

From a left standpoint, what lessons can be learnt from the current US Democratic primaries?

The primaries are being driven by a furious and focussed hatred of the incumbent Bush, matched by a pragmatic determination to replace him. In the minds of US Democrats, there is only one question – who can beat George W? Principles, policy and personality only matter if the serve the ultimate purpose of regaining the White House. The aloof, patrician Senator John Kerry, who looks like the priest out of the movie, The Exorcist, summed it in Iowa when he declared, “Don’t send a message to Washington, send a President.” The plain-spoken ex-governor Howard Dean had been ahead in party polls. His furious attacks on President Bush won him early applause. At last, a real Democrat. The party faithful loved if when he declared from the stump that he was from the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”, and scorned Washington Democrats as being “Republican-lite”
Howard Dean’s bizarre rant on Iowa election night probably sank him. The master of the Internet became its victim as video footage of his speech spun through cyber-space. His speech in New Hampshire may rehabilitate him among true believers, but I still don’t think the Republicans will get that lucky. Exciting the true believers is not the same as winning the country. The party faithful are not dumb, and their main goal is to exorcise Republicans from the White House. They see the Bush administration as extremist, dominated by neo-conservatives a far cry from the kinder, gentler Republicans personified by George Bush sr, the centrist Eisenhower, or even Richard Nixon.

There’s a key lesson for Australian Labor. You can motivate true believer by making your opponents figures of fun, or even hate. But to win means more than motivating the ‘base’. When you are behind, you have to take risks, such as Howard Dean who has created a climate where it is now acceptable to attack a President who has been superb at portraying himself as above the political fray, putting the needs of the country first. Of course, saying that you are non-political is the oldest political trick in the book.

First and foremost, the duty of the state is to protect the realm, so no one can afford to be seen as soft on defence or illegal immigrants. Enter the war hero, Kerry, who with medals earned in combat on display, became a leading anti-Vietnam protestor.

Mark Latham has been very smart in calling for a bipartisan approach on the war on terrorism, and to call for the creation for a Department of Homeland Security. It makes it very hard for the Liberal Party to oppose, given their best friend George W did exactly that. An even smarter move for Labor would be to elevate Kim Beazley to Shadow Minister Defence or Homeland Security, thereby quarantining precisely those issues Howard plans to focus on. For all the tribal songs sung by Latham Labor about class war, his team are distinctively New Labor about an open economy and prudent fiscal policies. This is reminiscent of NZ Labour who have distanced themselves from the “excesses” of the eighties, but who have in truth changed little – it is still the world’s third most open economy after Hong Kong and Singapore. The next move for Latham Labor is to move into the suburbs, attacking interest rate rises, the affordability of housing, the true talk of Australia’s lawn mowing democracy.

Socialist medicine is still popular across the spectrum, as is reducing the cost of higher education, despite being an effective subsidy for the middle class and rich. Labor wins when it talks about social mobility, equality and a fair go The vision the sons of cleaners becoming doctors and professors is Labor’s vision.
Drawing on the skills gained from their fierce factionalism, Labor can negotiate for Green and Democrat preferences, and they have the advantage of all Oppositions in that they can always outspend long-serving governments. Latham’s Labor can be lethal

Mark Latham can win. The media like a guy who always seems on the edge of exploding. It’s like watching a trapeze artist without a safety net. He just has to be himself: blunt, a bit of a larrikin and, if he can end the day without using the F word, people will say he has grown, looking like a leader. People will forgive his past, just as they forgave Bob Hawke for the booze and women because he was disciplined as leader and that’s all people ask for. Not much actually.