THE BLAIR INITIATIVE

British Prime Minister Blair has an opportunity to make history because he will be chairing the Group of 8 most industrialised countries’ leaders who meet on the 6th of July in the tranquillity of the famous mansion at Gleneagles. It’s Britain’s turn to chair the group of European Union leaders so Prime Minister Blair has the initiative. He has seized this opportunity, saying he wants the agenda to be dominated by the problems of Africa and global warming. Originally the British media was cynical, saying this was all about Blair trying to create a legacy that he wanted to be remembered for more than being the most successful Labour leader ever in electoral terms and the Iraq war. What’s wrong with seeking a legacy, and what better global issues to focus on than the pain of Africa and the danger to us all of climate change? Prime Minister Blair made his pitch directly to President Bush in Washington this week. He won some agreement on debt relief and a modest acceptance to increase aid from the President. A reasonable but hardly an historic breakthrough ...... yet. For over a generation rich countries have promised that aid should represent .7% of GNP. Only a handful of countries have reached that target.

Five years ago, over 100 leaders gathered at the U.N. to agree to the Millennium goals of reducing poverty. Alas, instead of advancing towards those goals of halving the number living on less than a dollar a day, halve the number who suffer from hunger and other worthy goals by the year 2015, things have gone backwards. It’s got worse. On present progress it would take over 100 years to achieve these noble goals. Let’s understand the magnitude of the problem in Africa. Each day 30,000 children perish in Africa. Globally, one third of deaths, 18 million a year, die because of poverty. Half a million women die in pregnancy and childbirth every year, one a minute. The last 20 years have seen the most people in history lifted out of extreme poverty, several hundred million in China and India. The U.N. itself has said more progress has been made in the last 50 years than the previous 500 years. Asia and the Pacific have shown the way, alas Africa is the only continent which has seriously gone backwards, where income per person in the poorest countries has fallen by 25% in the past 20 years. Why? It’s hard to develop when war rages and corrupt leaders steal.

Why should present Governments pay the debts of their criminal predecessors? Research tells us that the quality of the public service, honest civil servants, sand secure property rights, an independent judiciary, good central bank, non-porous tax systems, accountable politicians, a free media, active civil society, and religious tolerance drives up the best results. Open economies do better, the more open, the more efficient. It produces rational investment decisions, shoves aside corrupt government practices that always accompany licensing, quotas, import and export controls, and therefore the phoney crony capitalists who prosper because of their political contacts face competition. Competition is a cleansing commercial and political agent. So what will make the Blair project work when others have failed? There will be an unprecedented public involvement, 450 charities and NGO’s have already forged a coalition in Britain, the biggest movement of its type in history. Plans are to mobilise 200,000 to surround the G8 Summit.

The ‘make poverty history’ campaign is selling white wrist bands for people to wear as a sign of solidarity, over 3 million Britons have purchased the wrist bands. Geldorf and Bono have mobilised hundreds of stars and celebrities to make the case and mobilise public opinion. Never has there been such a public focus on the evil of poverty in Africa. I just hope this worthy campaign is not hi-jacked by the anti-globalisation, anti-capitalist forces. Africa’s problems are not globalisation, but not enough globalisation, not enough investment, not enough trade. Demanding receipts for aid monies, demanding accountability for investment is not a new form of colonisation. If during the Doha Trade round, the deal on agriculture was done, this would return four to five times more than all the present aid put together for Africa. Western subsidies on products such as cotton and sugar are obscene and must change. Anti-globalisationists do poor countries no favours by demanding that they get market access for their products, but should keep corrupt, inefficient protectionist programmes in place at home. This is a time of hope. Not since the campaign against slavery, and much later the anti-apartheid movement, have so many people in the West been so motivated.