DOHA - ENLARGE THE VISION - G20 THE BEST CARD

12 days ago over 30 Ministers of Trade met in Dalian in North China to seek an agreement on the Doha Development round, which is already behind schedule. This informal Ministerial was planned to get countries’ positions closer before the December meeting of the World Trade Organisation in Hong Kong. Ambitions are very low so the Hong Kong meeting should not fail, however I didn’t believe the Cancun Ministerial in Mexico would fail either. Alas, the World Trade Organisation is becoming more like the U.N. where Nations read out speeches, blame others, demand the other side be flexible, and don’t negotiate!

The World Trade Organisation membership is over 140, some member Nations don’t have missions in Geneva, many lack capacity and resources to back up their Minister, thus pre-Conference positions can be hard to re-open. At the Doha Conference which launched the round, I had a Minister who told his Parliament he would oppose a new round, remember at the WTO any one Nation can stop everything, giving rise to the cliché “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” or as we said at the Seattle debacle, “nothing is stuffed up until everything is stuffed up.” Anyhow the Minister who promised to stop the round launch now saw a document that was very much in his country’s interests, “Easy,” I told him, “Let’s not call it a round, let’s call it the Doha Development Agenda.” The media, civil society and opposition politicians demand Ministers make public their negotiating positions in the name of democracy and transparency, this can kill legitimate compromise and trade-offs. When positions become too public it becomes more difficult to cut a deal even if the disadvantages of compromising in one area are more than offset by gains in another.

At Cancun, the Europeans and Japanese had been pushing hard for the inclusion of competition, investment and Government procurement policies, something that had divided everyone at Seattle. In negotiation, as in Poker, there’s a time to hold and a time to fold. Towards the end of the doomed conference, the Europeans showed great flexibility and announced that after many years they accepted that these issues, important for them, would not float and they would take them off the table. They expected applause and then movement because of this compromise. Too late, many Ministers kept reading out their speeches prepared weeks ago in capitals. No Ambassador has ever been sacked for saying “no” and preserving the status quo, it’s safe. Yet even the big countries are stuck back in an age when you can cut a deal at a minute to midnight after going without sleep for 40 hours. It now doesn’t work, you just cannot get the message out to all the Ministers and capitals in the time available. That’s why the Doha Conference was successful. My nightmare is that if the Hong Kong Ministerial fails then the impatient, dangerous alternative will be to tell developing countries, that’s the poor, little guys, which is about _ of the membership, who keep asking for special and deferential treatment as a way of postponing implementing the various agreements, giving them time to adjust, will become not a legitimate space for reform but become an ‘opt out’ option. That’s a 2-speed WTO, one for those who are doing well, engaged, growing, and the majority who are poor and marginalised who can opt out. The rich countries could do little deals to provide some modest access to markets, some technical assistance and continue as the Top 20 countries now do to provide 80% of world trade. This could then be called a successful conclusion of the Doha Development round with all the shallow spin involved. If the Hong Kong Conference limps through calling for more work, this could be an option. This would be an historic disgrace and betray the principles of multilateralism, keep the ‘rich club’ intact and leave the poor countries on the sidelines. Sadly some of the poorest countries who now desperately cling to certain privileged export quotas would feel pleased, so would some of the anti-trade NGO’s. But then they would realise all they have got is the status quo. And haven’t we all agreed for years that the status quo was unjust and only yesterday’s best compromise. We should not forget the WTO is more than just free and open trade, but its agreed rules to help create and maintain modern market economies, it acts as an outside peg to drive up internal reforms. However there is hope, a new group of 20 developing countries lead by India, Brazil and China have taken the initiative and put forward fresh proposals. The G20, much abused when it was established, has the key, the momentum and the credibility to bridge great differences.

I’ve always believed that in diplomacy when you are cornered by small details, it is necessary to widen the context, enlarge the vision. Have we already forgotten what the leaders at the G8 meeting in Scotland said about trade and Africa? That’s where the deal is. It will take leaders’ involvement to re-write instructions to Ambassadors, timing is everything, the game can still be won.