WHO WILL WIN ?

Nobody won the election in New Zealand, yet. To understand what’s happening needs an understanding of New Zealand’s electoral system which is no longer based on the British Parliamentary system, but is M.M.P., mixed member proportional representation. Half the Members of Parliament are directly elected, the other half represent the party based on the party vote. People get two votes, one for their local Member of Parliament, another for the party - that’s the vote that determines the number each party has in Parliament. M.M.P. was introduced into Germany after the war, its purpose was to ensure no single party can easily govern on its own, there must be coalitions. At present, Labour has 40.74% of the vote, National 39.63%. Thus Labour has one more seat. The other parties in Parliament are New Zealand First, lead by Winston Peters with 7 seats and 5.84%; the Greens with 5.7% - 6 seats; United Future - 3 seats; ACT with 2 seats; Progressive with 1 seat, and the Maori Party with 4 seats. There is a 5% threshold to get list seats, but if an electorate seat is won, that does not apply. 10% of the vote is still to be counted, these are special and overseas votes that will take a few weeks to sort out and normally favour National. The Greens could drop below the 5% threshold necessary to be in Parliament if the student vote swung to Labour because of its promise to abolish interest on student loans.

Winston Peters of New Zealand First, and Peter Dunne of United Future have said they would talk first to the party with the most votes, sounds good for Labour but get this - both have said they would find it hard to work with the Greens. The Greens expect Cabinet seats this time after being loyal supporters of the Clark Labour Government for the past 6 years. This will be a frail coalition, vulnerable, you have to give Labour a 60% chance of forming a government but you would be brave to think the Government could survive a full 3-year term. Labour took a pounding in its Maori electoral base, with the new Maori Party taking 4 of the Maori seats. On the face of it, they would support Labour before National on votes of confidence. They will want to open up controversial seabed legislation and have said they would rather have a new election than sell out. This position is in direct conflict to the bottom lines other minority party leaders have taken. Helen Clark has proven adept in her handling of these conflicting positions in the past.

Now what happened? National almost increased its vote by 50%, its 65-year old novice leader, Don Brash, cruelly nick-named ‘Mogadon’ because of his grey, even boring style, became rather attractive because many New Zealanders are angry and alienated by what they see as politically correct busy-body socialism. There are two New Zealand’s, it was an election of two halves. The conservatives swept provincial rural and regional New Zealand, then saw the tide stop, even reverse, in the great urban centres. National did determine the agenda, offering massive tax cuts. Labour, after saying the country could afford them, almost matched them. It was almost as though each campaign committee sat and thought, “Whatever it takes.” Labour offered 250 new policemen, National 1,000, then Winston Peters said 5,000. It was an election where nobody asked where the money was coming from, the media and public convinced New Zealand’s surplus was permanent and could be spent several times. Labour had a good story to tell, lowest unemployment in the OECD, good growth, massive if frequently misspent expenditure in health and education.

But the issue which hit home the most and will dominate and determine the shape of the Government and the shape of our society, will be issues Maori. If the first-ever Maori Party sits in Parliament determined to extract evermore concessions, then polarisation is inevitable, the cracks can be papered over with taxpayers’ money for a few more years yet. But this is changing New Zealand. Unless there is a new consensus, I fear for my party, my Labour tribe, and I fear for my country.