AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND POLITICS

The impatient and unsettling struggle for the Prime Minister’s job in the U.K. between Prime Minister Blair and his Chancellor, Gordon Brown, is a re-run of what happens in many nations that enjoy the British Westminster system of government. In our telecratic democracy, Prime Ministers are acting like Presidents, and Finance Ministers become the workhorses, the implementers. These tensions were played out in the 1980’s in New Zealand, Prime Minister Lange vs. Finance Minister Douglas, Australian Prime Minister Hawke vs. Finance Minister Keating, Canadian Prime Minister Chretien vs. Finance Minister Martin.

The Westminster system means Members of Parliament elect their leader, their Prime Minister, no direct election means the knives can cut short a career without the people voting. Direct elections such as the U.S. or France mean Presidents can weather storms, Nixon would have been rolled and Clinton may not have survived either. Both systems have advantages. When Prime Ministers and Finance Ministers accept their roles, stable government is assured. The Howard-Costello no contest, if it becomes a contest, is Australian Labour’s big chance. Prime Minister Howard doesn’t look like a man looking forward to retirement to me. Australian Labour controls for the first time, all the states and territories, indeed Labour was returned recently in Tasmania and South Australia. Rann’s South Australian government now has the biggest Labour majority ever. Despite this historic win, Premier Rann is going to continue to run a coalition government with a couple of conservative Ministers. Very smart and tough considering how long-serving Labour Members of Parliament have to accept, they will not be Ministers but their opponents will. Labour’s got the formula correct at State level, prudent financially, socially, environmentally aware, not too Party political, they work constructively with the Federal Government, and hard-line on law and order. Pity about Federal Labour which faces insurmountable opportunities. Labour wins when the tribes decide they hate the other side more than each other. This happens every 12 years.

New Zealand Labour is blessed with opposition conservative parties that never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity by creating their own diversion of tiresome mini-scandals. They have real problems, not only of leadership, but purpose, even relevance. Their Finance spokesperson, John Key, may not have an easy walk into the leadership as predicted. Former leader, Bill English, has carefully worked on building a new coalition, especially among the many new provincial Members of Parliament.

New Zealand has the most successful leadership team in a generation, Prime Minister Clark and Finance Minister Cullen, may be drawing to a close. Michael Cullen has been the workhorse of New Zealand’s Labour government; Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Leader of the House (not easy given a coalition government), the Attorney-General and Minister for Higher Education and does the hard jobs sorting out crises such as Maori land issues. Prime Minister Clark will want to freshen up her government and has already offered obscure overseas posts to some obscure Members of Parliament which, under our system, means new MP’s straight off the ‘list’ and no dangerous by-elections. These new MP’s will follow Party directions. They are answerable to the Party not the electorate. That’s the nature of the proportional representation system., their votes will be important in future leadership battles. This will be one of the defining moments of Helen Clark’s government. The decision will be Michael Cullen’s on timing.

The finance job, when it comes up, is Deputy Finance Minister Mallard’s to lose. Alas, his aggression in Parliament, and ‘hard man’ attitude (there’s a difference in being tough and rude), doesn’t impress the public, wins few friends. Trade Minister Phil Goff has the focus, drive, discipline and competence to do the job but he is talented, a possible leader and may not yet be forgiven for being a good Minister in the Lange/Douglas Government. In terms of temperament and the capacity to retail politics in the Caucus and the country, Police Minister Annette King, would be a non-threatening deputy. This may seem as yet another symbolic women’s appointment, it would not be, that would be unfair to King.

Given the configuration of the ‘list’ MP’s, the biggest group being teachers and unionists. Steve Maharey, Minister for Education and ‘teacher’s pet’, cannot be counted out. The three oldest words in politics are, "Why not me?" Michael Cullen would make a superb speaker, he loves Parliament and is good at its dark art. As we saw after the last New Zealand election, the driving principle behind both major parties as they sought to build a coalition to govern was, "whatever it takes!"