TRIANGULATION OR STRANGULATION - THE THIRD WAY

Australia and New Zealand labour were New Labour when Tony Blair was at school. At one stage we had more Labour Governments at state and central level than there were social democratic governments in Europe, and Bill Clinton was an obscure Governor. Bob Hawke understood modern economics, as a trade union leader he had spent time with serious business people. In the 1980’s I set up the Wednesday Club, where Labour MP’s were exposed to business and new thinkers. In the U.K. Labour, desperate to win, launched the prawn cocktail initiative, when their leaders visited and listened to business leaders. Bill Clinton called this ‘triangulation’, that is, meeting your opponents in the centre, defusing the conservatives’ stranglehold on economic credibility to become electable and re-electable. Now the conservatives in many places are ‘triangulating’ back. In the U.K., the conservatives are praising public servants, promoting market-based ‘green’ solutions, and won’t cut taxes if they imperil social services.

The U.K. conservatives even asked me to join a commission, with Saint Sir Bob Geldorf, to prepare some policy suggestions on development and trade issues. I wanted to, but being tribal and not wanting to be a hostage, I declined. They are moving to the centre, stealing the ‘left’s’ clothes. Australian conservatives are the exception. They are in power and are two-thirds conservative, every third year, election year, they are populist. Two elections ago in Canada, the conservatives, as they did in the U.K. and New Zealand, campaigned on savage tax cuts enabling labour to demand which schools, hospitals or police stations they would close? But at the last Canadian election the conservatives rejected large tax cuts, went to the centre and beat the left-leaning Liberals. This lesson has not been learnt yet by the New Zealand conservatives. However NZ Labour is beginning to look tired, Finance Minister, Michael Cullen, seems to suffer from ‘irritable vowel syndrome’ snapping at journalists. He’s angry because despite his solid performance during good economic times holding back the big spenders, he had to bite his bottom lip as the Government, during the election campaign, spent up large. It’s tiring, tiresome and lonesome and often loathsome doing the dirty work of Government and he’s done well.

Now, Ministers are positioning themselves, it will be hard to stop Cullen’s deputy, Trevor Mallard, smart, despite his Bruce Willis impersonations. Phil Goff, also a Deputy Finance Minister, is playing it safe, and risks becoming an Al Gore, able, worthy, but too safe, a bit like Coronation Street’s Ken Barlow. Don’t underestimate Mallard who has been the last four Labour leaders’ best friend before he helped replace them. He knows when to jump and will cut some taxes before the election if given the chance.

The greatest challenge to both major parties in New Zealand, due to proportional representation, is how to build up coalition partners. Labour is best at this. It was breath-taking when they appointed Winston Peters as Foreign Minister, who made his reputation attacking foreigners, outside Cabinet, and pretended he’s not a formal member of the Government. I hoped Peters might be bold and try to break the deadlock NZ endures with its trading relations with the U.S. and bring some fresh thinking to our regional relationships but he has become a smooth, comfortable spokesman for the Department of Foreign Affairs. The Government has loved him to death and gives him much Parliamentary time to attack the National Party and praise them. What a waste of talent. The NZ National Party opposition is not widening its base, unlike the U.K. and Canadian conservatives. Its leader, Don Brash, has been fenced in as a narrow economist, and the young pretender, John Keys, doesn’t seem to have any strategy to widen his base. His, is an interesting narrative, a working class boy who’s done well. But he looks a tad too pleased with himself and Labour will paint him as a squillionaire who is probably good at some obscure sport such as Petanque.

It’s not just the economy which is turning sour. Labour is paying the cost of its many nanny Commissions that continue to push politically correct policies. I laughed until my nose bled when the Broadcasting Standards Authority banned a Toyota car advertisement because 17 people complained it promoted domestic violence. The latest thigh-slapper is a suggestion that all spa, swimming pool and hot tub owners should display a warning sign for toddlers to read, and pay $95 every 3 years for inspections by municipal busy-bodies. More of this and the recent words of a U.S. Republican pollster may come true. He said, "The good news is the Democrats don’t have a policy; the bad news is they may not need one."